BankableYou watched the verdict.
Here's the whole calculation.
The video gives you the two-sentence verdict and the two numbers. This is the work behind it — the one-page verdict and the editable cost workbook, so you can set your own capture rate, gas price and carbon price and watch which of the three answers survives. Free.
Verdict: overhyped as a new energy vector · a real bet as a retrofit — existing molecule, existing storage, existing customer
The verdict
The one-page verdict
- The graveyard: four projects in eight months, and what killed them
- Why the fleet captures ~60% when the standards want 90–95%
- 45Q's $85/tonne — and the ~$0.77/kg it actually pays
- The methane wall no capture rate can touch
- Turquoise's honest physics — and its 6% ceiling
- The four conditions where blue actually pencils
The workbook
The editable TEA workbook
- The actual spreadsheet — every yellow cell an input
- Set the gas price and watch grey move first
- Capture rate, capture cost, carbon price, 45Q — all live
- See the carbon price that would close the gap on its own
- Run it in Excel or Google Sheets
Where should I send it?
It's free. I just ask what you're working on — so I know who's out there and what to tear down next.
Here you go. 🎉
Both are yours — open the verdict in your browser, the workbook in Excel or Google Sheets (every yellow cell is an input).
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